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Thread: Food futures. Global food prices soaring.

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  1. #1
    i am an old friend of ytcracker's betticus's Avatar
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    Default Food futures. Global food prices soaring.

    An interesting note or bit of history to look at. In WWII the government encouraged people to grow home gardens, they called them victory gardens. Victory gardens produced up to 40% of all the vegetables consumed in the U.S. at that time during the war.

    This thing with the global prices of food, the causes behind it and the potential outcomes means exactly what? It means shit is going to be changing rapidly. It may mean get a bicycle, move close enough to work to ride that fucker there and plant your ass a garden big enough to sustain yourself.

    It might also mean that some well planned investing can pay off over this.

    http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/in_depth/7284196.stm

    http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/business/7276971.stm

    Q&A: Rising world food prices
    Harvest
    Wheat prices have risen 83% in a year

    The price of wheat has doubled in the past year - and it is not the only foodstuff trading at a high price on the international commodity market.

    Things have got so bad that aid agencies are having to rethink their programmes.

    In the UK, pig farmers are protesting at Downing Street over the price of feed.

    BBC science correspondent Tom Feilden looks at the reasons why the era of cheap food may be coming to an end.

    What is going on?

    Prices are increasing sharply for some of the most basic foodstuffs traded on international commodity markets.

    The price of wheat has doubled in less than a year, while other staples such as corn and soya are trading at well above their 1990s averages.

    Rice and coffee prices are running at 10-year highs, and in some countries, prices for milk and meat have more than doubled.

    Why are we seeing these increases now?

    It could be the breakdown of the "Goldilocks era" for global commodities - a period stretching back more than 30 years, during which the price of basic foodstuffs has been neither too high nor too low, but remained relatively constant.

    For most of this period, the cost of staples such as wheat, corn and soya has actually fallen in real terms.

    But it seems this long period of stability is coming to an end. Most commentators believe we are on the cusp of a new era of volatility and rising prices.

    What are the main causes?

    The first reason why prices are rising is growth in the world's population, which is expected to top nine billion by the middle of the century.

    That is an incredible number of mouths to feed and will put pressure on a range of resources, including land, water and oil, as well as food supply.

    But lurking behind the headline figures for population is an even more significant factor pushing up prices, and that's the economic miracle driving emerging economies such China and India.

    To put it bluntly, rich people eat more than poor people, and all this economic growth is generating a whole new tier of middle-class consumers.

    What other factors are involved?

    There is also the added environmental pressure all these extra people are loading onto the planet, as well as the impact of climate change.

    Desertification is accelerating in China and sub-Saharan Africa, while more frequent flooding and changing patterns of rainfall are already beginning to have a significant impact on agricultural production.

    And global warming has played a significant role in another driver of rising prices: the shift in agricultural production from food to biofuels.

    Ethanol production is on course to account for some 30% of the US corn crop by 2010, dramatically curtailing the amount of land available for food crops and pushing up the price of corn flour on international commodity markets.

  2. #2
    . ryph's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by ryph View Post
    lol the funny part is gold doesnt compromise more than maybe 35-40% of my investments.

    theres tons more money to be made in agriculture and shorting stocks.
    http://www.digitalgangster.com/4um/s...9&postcount=68

    i trade DBA, JJA and RJA religiously.

    i practically hand dg free money but yet i dont think a single person has taken my advice on anything (minus stang and yt with gold)

    o well
    "Americans like to believe in American exceptionalism, that the United States is a force for good around the world, not just another country pursuing its interests via geopolitical horse-trading. This is part of why there is such a visceral public backlash against WikiLeaks -- because it lays bare U.S. diplomacy in all its blunt, unromantic reality."

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    i am an old friend of ytcracker's betticus's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by ryph View Post
    http://www.digitalgangster.com/4um/s...9&postcount=68

    i trade DBA, JJA and RJA religiously.

    i practically hand dg free money but yet i dont think a single person has taken my advice on anything (minus stang and yt with gold)

    o well
    Looks like it's time, people gotta eat man.

  4. #4

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    discountfood.org

  5. #5
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    STOP WITH THE FUCKING .ORGS
    "Americans like to believe in American exceptionalism, that the United States is a force for good around the world, not just another country pursuing its interests via geopolitical horse-trading. This is part of why there is such a visceral public backlash against WikiLeaks -- because it lays bare U.S. diplomacy in all its blunt, unromantic reality."

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    lol im band
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    isumad.org

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    imheatedontheinternet.com
    "Americans like to believe in American exceptionalism, that the United States is a force for good around the world, not just another country pursuing its interests via geopolitical horse-trading. This is part of why there is such a visceral public backlash against WikiLeaks -- because it lays bare U.S. diplomacy in all its blunt, unromantic reality."

  8. #8

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    i listen to you ryph...you and jim rogers know wtf is up...do you trade raw agriculture or agriculture stocks?

    ERROR: If you can see this, then YouTube is down or you don't have Flash installed.

    jim rogers is pretty baller

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    btw what the fuck is with that asian chicks face...looks like she was beat with a stick

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    Quote Originally Posted by makeshift View Post
    btw what the fuck is with that asian chicks face...looks like she was beat with a stick
    rofl maria bartiromo? im pretty sure she aint asian. she was hot as hell a few years back.
    "Americans like to believe in American exceptionalism, that the United States is a force for good around the world, not just another country pursuing its interests via geopolitical horse-trading. This is part of why there is such a visceral public backlash against WikiLeaks -- because it lays bare U.S. diplomacy in all its blunt, unromantic reality."

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    and wow, great vid makeshift. anybody reading this, take the 10 minutes to watch that. he lays out everything ive been doing for the past year (minus any mention of gold, and you guys know my LOVE for gold)

    agri (all commodities actually), shorting stocks (esp financials) and yes swiss franc and yen

    here are some symbols for those with an investment acct and might try and get their feet wet:
    DBA, JJA, RJA, all agri etfs. they track the price of the raw commodities themselves (makeshift, i have never touched agri stocks)
    FXF swiss franc
    FXY yen
    SKF ultrashort financials

    heres some extra fun if you wanna look into them
    USO oil fund
    GAZ natural gas
    SLV silver
    GLD gold etf
    DGP 2x gold
    JJN nickel
    JJC copper
    "Americans like to believe in American exceptionalism, that the United States is a force for good around the world, not just another country pursuing its interests via geopolitical horse-trading. This is part of why there is such a visceral public backlash against WikiLeaks -- because it lays bare U.S. diplomacy in all its blunt, unromantic reality."

  12. #12

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    yeah he likes gold and oil...he also really likes the chinese renminbi

    he talks about gold in the end of this video..

    ERROR: If you can see this, then YouTube is down or you don't have Flash installed.

    he says he thinks gold will go down and then end the year higher if not much higher...hes also said that oil will eventually go to $150-200

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    haha loving these videos. just reinforcing what ive been hammering about. he mentions higher interest rates down the road because of all the inflation coming down the pike. what do you think double digit rates will do to home prices? to all you knife catching home buyers here (and i KNOW there's plenty) trust me they have a LOOONNG way to go from here.
    "Americans like to believe in American exceptionalism, that the United States is a force for good around the world, not just another country pursuing its interests via geopolitical horse-trading. This is part of why there is such a visceral public backlash against WikiLeaks -- because it lays bare U.S. diplomacy in all its blunt, unromantic reality."

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    i am an old friend of ytcracker's betticus's Avatar
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    Home prices have gone nuts. Damn real estate. Lessee, with projected 50% increase in population by 2050 what's that going to do to real estate prices.

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    Quote Originally Posted by betticus View Post
    Home prices have gone nuts. Damn real estate. Lessee, with projected 50% increase in population by 2050 what's that going to do to real estate prices.
    yea maybe chinese real estate, but in reagrds to the US real estate over the next 3 years. its done.

    btw, for those that know me, know that i plan on buying up literally hundreds of distressed properties in and around 2010 along rail routes. so its not like im a complete bear on RE. its just got to be timed. and yes, im expecting another 30-40% downside from here nationally. that bad.

    i mean really think about it with a neutral mind. home prices have dropped what, 15% nationally so far? this happened in the face of historically *abnormally* low interest rates and unemployment. what happens when the downward economic spiral really takes hold where people lose their jobs, spend less money they have, which in turn leads to others getting laid off and having less money to spend. this drops the dollar more (which raises inflation) thus resulting in higher prices across the board which puts added strain to an already helpless consumer. higher inflation/lower dollar leads to higher interest rates, which compounds the problem by making access to money harder to come by which in turn leads to less money available to the economy (and making monthly mortgage payments that much more expensive and unaffordable). down the toilet we go. imo, 30% further from here in home prices 2 years from now is in the bag.
    "Americans like to believe in American exceptionalism, that the United States is a force for good around the world, not just another country pursuing its interests via geopolitical horse-trading. This is part of why there is such a visceral public backlash against WikiLeaks -- because it lays bare U.S. diplomacy in all its blunt, unromantic reality."

  16. #16

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    Quote Originally Posted by ryph View Post
    yea maybe chinese real estate, but in reagrds to the US real estate over the next 3 years. its done.

    btw, for those that know me, know that i plan on buying up literally hundreds of distressed properties in and around 2010 along rail routes. so its not like im a complete bear on RE. its just got to be timed. and yes, im expecting another 30-40% downside from here nationally. that bad.

    i mean really think about it with a neutral mind. home prices have dropped what, 15% nationally so far? this happened in the face of historically *abnormally* low interest rates and unemployment. what happens when the downward economic spiral really takes hold where people lose their jobs, spend less money they have, which in turn leads to others getting laid off and having less money to spend. this drops the dollar more (which raises inflation) thus resulting in higher prices across the board which puts added strain to an already helpless consumer. higher inflation/lower dollar leads to higher interest rates, which compounds the problem by making access to money harder to come by which in turn leads to less money available to the economy (and making monthly mortgage payments that much more expensive and unaffordable). down the toilet we go. imo, 30% further from here in home prices 2 years from now is in the bag.
    yeah thats seems like a really good prediction...i really wish banks would stop lending completely..THEN you would get some real home prices lol...its so funny to me that soooo many people would rather be heavily in debt than live is smaller settings...they need a fuckin big lawn n shit for da kids...yes they have kids also

    anyways why are you looking at rail route properties? you figure those will be even more depressed?

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    Quote Originally Posted by makeshift View Post
    anyways why are you looking at rail route properties? you figure those will be even more depressed?
    high ass gas prices. people will be forced to start using public transportation than commuting with their cars. will keep the demand high around urban areas by rail routes, so i can demand a premium for rent.
    "Americans like to believe in American exceptionalism, that the United States is a force for good around the world, not just another country pursuing its interests via geopolitical horse-trading. This is part of why there is such a visceral public backlash against WikiLeaks -- because it lays bare U.S. diplomacy in all its blunt, unromantic reality."

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    Quote Originally Posted by ryph View Post
    high ass gas prices. people will be forced to start using public transportation than commuting with their cars. will keep the demand high around urban areas by rail routes, so i can demand a premium for rent.
    So you think people are going to commute to the city by "hopping the rails" like a hobo or something?

    Commuter rail hardly exists away from the east coast. I'd like to see more investment in Amtrak to bring back rail travel. They did have a record number of riders last year (most since 1970).

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    Quote Originally Posted by iceman20 View Post
    So you think people are going to commute to the city by "hopping the rails" like a hobo or something?

    Commuter rail hardly exists away from the east coast. I'd like to see more investment in Amtrak to bring back rail travel. They did have a record number of riders last year (most since 1970).
    i dont think, i know. i spend hours upon hours daily doing my research so that i can have convictions in my trading. watch what happens to the suburbs with $9/gal gas. its gonna be reverse ghettoization. usually you hear urban, you think slums. the innercity projects etc... the slums will become ex/suburbs while all the jobs will be in urban centers. gas prices will not only prevent the commuting in cars as we know it, but think of where the price of food and necessary staples prices will go with the added 'trucking in' tax. trust me, railroads/urban areas is where youll want to own RE.

    its already starting Truckers: Strike to protest high fuel prices will do little good

    eventually these truckers are going to have to pass on fuel costs to the consumers. that or just stop transporting goods altogether. either way, the cost efficient method is obvious: rail.
    "Americans like to believe in American exceptionalism, that the United States is a force for good around the world, not just another country pursuing its interests via geopolitical horse-trading. This is part of why there is such a visceral public backlash against WikiLeaks -- because it lays bare U.S. diplomacy in all its blunt, unromantic reality."

  20. #20

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    Quote Originally Posted by ryph View Post
    high ass gas prices. people will be forced to start using public transportation than commuting with their cars. will keep the demand high around urban areas by rail routes, so i can demand a premium for rent.
    lol hmmm interesting...i don't know...it could happen

    for some reason i don't see people going..."gas prices are outrageous..time to hit the rails"..that would be funny though and i hope it does happen

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    by the way, check out the top major holder for Burlington Northern Railroad http://finance.yahoo.com/q/mh?s=BNI

    Why is Warren Buffett So Interested In The Railroad Industry?
    :snip: "No one really knows why Warren Buffett fell in love with railroad investing all of a sudden." :snip:

    ya sure buddy, nobody knows;x
    "Americans like to believe in American exceptionalism, that the United States is a force for good around the world, not just another country pursuing its interests via geopolitical horse-trading. This is part of why there is such a visceral public backlash against WikiLeaks -- because it lays bare U.S. diplomacy in all its blunt, unromantic reality."

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